r/stocks Mar 24, 12:43 PM
From €26 IPO bagholding to merger announcement: My 22-month PUIG journey (and the suspicious €45M that bought right before the news) So this happened. After averaging down for almost two years on what I thought was a value play, Estée Lauder announced merger talks with my position. Stock gapped up 15%. I sold some, kept most, and now I'm trying to process what the hell just happened.
But here's the thing that's been bothering me: someone bought €45 million worth in after-hours trading the week before the announcement. And I want your take on wether this was legal or not.
The beginning (aka my expensive education)
May 2024. PUIG (Spanish beauty/fragrance company) IPOs at €24.50. I see Charlotte Tilbury in the portfolio, read about "premium positioning" and "family-controlled business," and buy 30 shares at €26.06. Classic retail FOMO. I'm immediatly down 10% and it keeps falling.
For context: I'm not a professional. I work a regular job. This is money I've saved and I'm teaching myself as I go. So naturally, I decided the solution was to average down for the next 22 months.
The grind (and the moment I almost lost conviction)
Here's the thing nobody tells you about DCA - it's psychologically brutal when your doing it on a falling stock. Every month I'm buying more, watching my average cost drift from €26 down through €21, €20, €19, €18, €17...
My thesis: P/E of 14x vs L'Oréal at 25x, Charlotte Tilbury growing fast, 7.8% organic revenue growth, family-controlled for long-term focus.
But then October 2025 happened. Stock hit €13.11 - an all-time low, 50% down from IPO.
I only had cash for 50 shares that month. Bought at €13.59. It barely moved my average. And for the first time I seriously questioned whether I was just bagholding a dying thesis. Maybe I was wrong about the value. Maybe the market knew something I didn't.
Looking back, that was the capitulation moment I should have backed up the truck. But doubt is a hell of a thing.
Kept grinding though. By March 2026: 2000 shares at €16.69 average.
March 3rd: The crash day buy
Market crashes. Iran escalation. IBEX down 4.4%, PUIG down 5.4%.
Around 11am it hits €14.77. And I just... bought. 350 shares. Not genius - I was genuinely worried it could go lower but figured the fundamentals hadn't changed.
Turns out €14.77 was €0.30 from the absolute bottom of €14.47 that day. Pure luck.
March 9-23: The weird stuff starts
Starting March 18-19, HUGE after-hours volume. 2.2-2.4 million shares traded after close (normal daily volume is 600-800k). Price jumping from €15.53 to €15.98 in after-hours.
March 19: Another 2 million shares after-hours, €15.49 to €15.86.
Someone bought roughly €45 million in two after-hours sessions.
At the time I'm thinking "institutional accumulation? Odd timing though."
March 23: More unusual volume, 1.54M shares. Closes at €15.57.
March 23 evening: Oh. THAT'S why.
After close: Estée Lauder + PUIG merger talks announced. Combined entity worth $40B.
The logic makes sense - Estée Lauder is weak in fragrances (PUIG's strength, 70% of revenue), and Charlotte Tilbury is exactly what they need.