r/investing Apr 1, 01:23 AM
Earnings Season is coming up - been looking at alternative data Looking at the current earnings markets, a few names are standing out with very strong implied chances of beating expectations.
Most favored to beat:
Lamb Weston (LW): 95.5%
Delta Air Lines (DAL): 84.0%
Unity Bancorp (UNTY): 82.5%
Nike (NKE): 79.5%
Lamb Weston is the biggest standout by far. A 95.5% chance to beat is an extremely strong signal. Delta and Unity also look solid, and Nike is still in the stronger group with improving sentiment.
On the flip side, the market is pricing in real skepticism for a few companies:
Names the market is cautious on:
RH: 24.0% chance to beat
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY): 16.0%
CarMax (KMX): 35.0%
MSC Industrial (MSM): 70.7%, which is weaker than the top-tier names
RH is especially interesting because the low probability comes with deeper liquidity, which makes that bearish signal feel more credible. PLAY is even lower on raw probability, though with less liquidity behind it.
The overall setup looks pretty split:
stronger confidence in Lamb Weston, Delta, Unity, and Nike
much weaker confidence in RH, PLAY, and CarMax
financials look more mixed, with decent but not overwhelming confidence
My read: prediction markets are not bullish on earnings across the board right now. They are being selective, and the separation between likely beats and risky names is pretty obvious.
That makes this slate interesting, because if the market is right again, the biggest moves could come from the names where confidence is most extreme.
submitted by /u/BadBoyBrando
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