r/stocks Apr 22, 01:19 PM
Is TRV a diamond in the rough? So I've been running stocks through a fundamental screen in my spare time, basically just looking for solid businesses that seem mispriced. Travelers popped up and honestly my first reaction was "boring, skip." Stuck with it anyway and I'm glad I did.
Here's what stood out:
ROIC: 19.6% (5yr avg was 11.9%, so it's trending up which is a good sign)
FCF margin: 27.2%
Net margin: 15.5%
Revenue growing at about 9.8% a year over 5 years
P/E: 9.1x
My DCF puts fair value around $415, stock is sitting at ~$301
9.1x earnings for a business this consistent feels low to me. The gap between price and my fair value estimate is about 37%.
Then they reported Q1 last Thursday and the numbers were actually pretty good. EPS of $7.71 vs consensus of $6.80. Revenue $11.92B vs $11.11B expected. They also bumped the dividend 14% and announced a $5B buyback. Stock did basically nothing after. Still hanging around $300.
I get why insurance doesn't get a lot of love. Cat risk is real, one bad hurricane season can blow up a year of earnings, and there's a longer term question around whether climate change makes the whole underwriting model harder over time. Those are legitimate concerns.
But like... this company has been around since 1853. They've priced risk through literally everything. Their combined ratio has been solid and consistent. At some point the valuation has to reflect that.
Two things I'm still not totally sure about. The gross margin is 32.9% which looks low but I think that's just normal for P&C insurance and I want to make sure I'm not benchmarking it wrong. Also the ROIC jump from 11.9% average to 19.6% recently could mean genuine improvement or just a good underwriting cycle. That distinction matters for whether this holds up.
Anyone here follow insurance closely? Curious how you're thinking about cat risk going into hurricane season and whether the dividend raise reads as confidence or just capital management. Would love to know what I'm missing.
submitted by /u/HotDoor4125
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