r/stocks Apr 25, 04:10 PM
OMER: A Biotech on the Rise This isn’t financial advice, simply my own opinion, so do your own DD
TLDR: OMER is trading around $973 million market cap. Their drug Yartemlea alone could give the company over a $5 billion market cap. Considering their $2.1 billion deal with NOVO for another drug in their pipeline, Zaltenibart, I think OMER is currently undervalued. I think OMER will be trading around $30 per share by the end of summer. My bullish estimate is $40+ (with EMA approval, EU partnership, and stronger than anticipated Yartemlea sales in 2026)
OMER is one of my favorite biotech plays at the moment. They had their 4q 2025 earnings report on March 31st, and there is a lot to be excited about in regard to the future of OMER. Here are some highlights why I think this stock will be trading around a $2.5 billion market cap by the end of summer.
1. Yartemlea FDA & EMA Approval: OMER received FDA approval for their drug Yartemlea in December 2025, and was giving a broad label (can be used on patients as young as 2), with no warning label, They commercially launched the drug in January 2026. The drug treats transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA), and it is the only FDA drug approved to treat TA-TMA. On the recent earnings call, mgmt said that this drug will achieve self-sustainability by this year (sales revenue will be able to fund production, distribution, sales team/marketing). This drug alone will help the company become cash flow positive by 2027, so using 2025 expenses (so the numbers could be different based on expenses in 2026), that means mgmt thinks Yartemlea will reach at least ~$123 million in annual revenue by 2027. That is only considering the US market.
OMER is awaiting EU approval for Yartemlea, which will be decided in summer 2026. If Yartemlea gets EU approval, that will increase the patient population for Yartemlea by over 100%. On the call yesterday, mgmt confirmed they are working on a partnership deal for the EU market. So based on mgmts estimate that Yartemlea could achieve over $120 million in revenue in the US alone for 2027, if they get EU approval, that could substantially increase their current estimate (and I personally think they are intentionally being conservative with their estimated sales). So Yartemlea alone could be reaching $250 million in annual revenue by 2027.
2. Yartemlea Sales Potential: As far as the sales potential for Yartemlea, data I’ve read says there about 2000-3000 new cases of TA-TMA each year in the US alone. There are some higher estimates all the way up to 10,000 a year, but I’ll stick with the 2000-3000 a year estimate. Yartemlea costs $36,000 per vial, and most patients need 8-10 doses for the treatment. So that would be $288,000 to $360,000 per patient. Let’s say there’s some discounts or rebates with clinics and/or health insurance companies, I’d conservatively say it’s about $250,000 per patient. If 100% of patients that develop TA-TMA were to get this drug, that would put the ceiling at $500 m