r/wallstreetbets May 7, 01:37 AM
RKLB Or Bust? $15k Shares (~$8k on Margin) Before Tomorrow's Earnings Call IDK man, I borrowed my grandpa's retirement savings. I really hope tomorrow's earnings are good?
Pretty sure it's a money printer, but who knows... Not like I've been following this stonk since the VACQ days 🤷♀️
Okay, the longer explanation:
RKLB and SpaceX are poised to be the 'Duopoly' in western spaceflight for the forseeable future. While Blue Origin does have a somewhat mature launch platform, their inability to execute on-time and under-price means they've essentially priced themselves out of the market- time is money. This latest launch confirms that while they may pride themselves on their 'slow but fierce' approach, they aren't capable of mounting a serious competition to the existing market- let alone keeping up with a duopoly where 2 major launch providers are vying for contracts.
I won't spend any time on ULA, becuase the cost factor there is simply prohibitive. That said, the one benefit that ULA continued to provide for many years after the adoption of Falcon 9 for National Security payloads was it's 'second-source' nature. In the modern launch market, ULA's relevance continues to decrease, and when the first Neutron launches, ULA will become an afterthought, and SpaceX will suddenly have real competition for the first time in the company's life. I think it might go a lot like TSLA vs the chinese EV companies now operating in that market- look at TSLA's China & European sales for a sense of how Musk's companies do when faced with real competition.
While Starlink will continue to drive revenue and undoubtedly provide a significant moat to SpaceX in the near future, RKLB is uniquely positioned to soak up a significant amount of market share from those companies unable/unwilling to contract with a launch provider who is developing their own satellite constellation. Don't be surprised if we see Amazon sending Kuiper sats up on a Neutron launch vehicle before they achieve scale with New Glenn!
TL:DR - A degen regard buys some RKLB stonks, plz don't let it crash 2mrw plz
submitted by /u/space_nerd737
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