r/stocks Jun 11, 04:49 PM
Echostar, SATS (Basically 80% SPACEX Proxy) Factcheck with Official sources I want to present to everyone here clear facts and analysis on the stock. I am seeing many wrong garbage ai information out there. I am going to link every source here. Let me know if you find any errors
Official Sources:
Echostar's latest quarterly report https://ir.echostar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/echostar-announces-financial-results-three-months-ended-march-6 Total Debt - 24B Operation Profit - 400M Interest expense - 561M Net Income - (146M)
SpaceX Deal Sept 8, 2025 https://ir.echostar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/echostar-announces-spectrum-sale-and-commercial-agreement-spacex 8.5B cash 8.5B SpaceX based on Sept 8, 2025 valuation
SpaceX Deal Extended on Nov https://ir.echostar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/echostar-agrees-sell-full-unpaired-aws-3-spectrum-license 2.6B stock based on same Sept 8, 2025 valuation
ATT Deal https://about.att.com/story/2025/echostar.html 23B ATT deal, will close this month
Total Debt
24B
Cash
23B from ATT deal set to close this month
8.5 from SpaceX set to close Nov 2027
SpaceX Stock
According to Barron's, https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacex-echostar-stock-spectrum-ed8f7f59, it is worth ~2% of SpaceX's market cap. Priced at 31B with 1.75T SpaceX Valuation.
Other assets:
Echostar has some less valuable Spectrum left, which they intend to sell in the upcoming years. There's no reliable/good source for the valuation of these Spectrum.
https://broadbandbreakfast.com/echostar-aiming-to-sell-remaining-terrestrial-spectrum-by-sept-2028/
Business:
Echostar is a dying business, but it is not losing money. From the financial reports, you will see they are (14B) under last 12 months, but that is almost entirely due to interest expense, which will be retired with ATT Deal. In the latest quarterly earnings, they have 400M operating profit. I expect this to decline as they lose more subscribers. This part of the company is insignificant compared to its SpaceX stock.
Summary and Total Valuations
31B in SPACEX stock (assuming 1.75T market cap)
31.5B Cash from ATT + SpaceX deals
(24)B Total Debt
Unknown Remaining Spectrum Assets
>0 Echostar Business (positive operating profit)
In the worst case scenario, assuming the Business and remaining assets are worth 0,
the company is essentially SpaceX + 7.5B cash.
The no-arbitrage market valuation in this scenario for Echostar is thus:
31 (SpaceX stock at 135 dollars) + 7.5 - 4.2 (20% tax on 21 capital gains)= 34.3B, or ~ $118.68 per share
Assuming 5B Business + assets
$136 per share
Assuming 10B assets
$153 per share
For people who want to invest in SpaceX as proxy, this seems like an undervalued stock that essentially almost entirely SpaceX. It has no net debt, and an almost worthless business. 70-80% of its stock is just its SpaceX shares. We are looking at Yahoo/Alibaba 2.0.
submitted by /u/jamaltheripper
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